On April 2, 2024, Camden, the counselor of a high school in rural southwest Louisiana, is seated in his office after the bell rings. He is listening to the morning announcement, delivered by its principal, Glen, along with the rest of the student body.
"Bo proved it was not necessary to perform at a high extracurricular level to attend a good college. He will attend Florida" the principal continues to list the manifest of « prestige » acceptances accumulated by the student body on this Tuesday; he began with a second-stringer on the math team.
At this point of the year, juniors tend to request appointments more than seniors do. As a counselor, I noticed that not even top-5% kids are immune to risk aversion, and Florence is perhaps the one who undershot the most in that band. Even the one she replaced on the quiz bowl team got into Wake Forest, and she was much more accomplished as a debater than he was as a swimmer or quiz bowler, but had 2 ACT points less than Flo, Camden sighs, feeling like the most exciting portion of an entire year at work is seeing where the top-5% kids would end up attending. One year of work boiling down to Ivy Day. Or more specifically, a few days after Ivy Day proper.
When he returns home that day, after seeing several juniors after class, Camden takes the opportunity to have a family dinner.
"Daddy, how was your day at work?" a wide-eyed Myriam, a fifth-grader, asks him.
"I guess, I'm happy for a couple of kids, but there is one who disappoints me somewhat" Florence. 3.95/34. She could have tried Emory, WUSTL, Georgetown, or even plain old Tulane. Or, if she had the budget, Berkeley, UCLA or Michigan, he ruminates on her case, then sighs.
"What's wrong, dad?" Jacob, Myriam's little brother in first grade, asks him, upon seeing their father a little down.
"Sometimes desirable results come with risk-taking. Some students take too little risks with college, but the strongest students take the most risks here. For this reason, for Myriam's birthday, I want to take the whole family to the races" Camden tells his kids, while their mother has some objections to raise.
"Why take the kids to the races?" Brittany, their mother, asks him.
"Why tell me weeks in advance?" a puzzled Myriam asks her dad.
"The kids should be given an opportunity to learn about responsible risk-taking. If they aren't exposed to risk-taking, they may get crippling anxiety later down the road. However, for something new to them, such as horse racing, I believe limits should be set before" Camden explains to his wife. "On top of that, I believe they should learn a bit about the math of horse betting"
"Aren't they a little young for that? Jacob especially" Brittany voices another concern.
"There's still time for them to learn the key concepts as appropriate before they hit the track. They have the rest of the month to do so" Camden then takes the kids for their lesson.
Probability, expectation value, to name the most portable concepts. And, of course, the importance of taking responsibility for the result. Myriam is mature enough to learn about probability, Jacob has more catch-up to do, Camden muses, while looking at the calendar of the racing season at his favorite racetrack, Delta Downs in Vinton.
Several weeks pass and Myriam now functions at a much higher level in probability than her classmates, while Jacob, on the other hand, is forced to grow mathematically in ways that he couldn't suspect at that age. However, he seems to be struggling. When Saturday afternoon comes for the trip to the racetrack:
"First of all, you two have only twenty dollars each to place bets at the racetrack" Camden warns the children, elated to have that much money to place bets. "Please make sure you don't spend all your wager money on one race"
"Why?" Jacob asks, not understanding why.
"Tonight, there are ten races, twenty-five minutes apart. Surely you don't want to run out of money halfway through the night, when there are still interesting races left to go!" Camden explains to his youngest son.
"We'll be home a little late, but we also eat dinner there, too" Brittany adds.
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The kids now have a better idea of what to do at the racetrack. And Jacob is a haphazard bettor the way Myriam isn't. He bets $4, what he believes is his allotment for both races in the daily double (Jacob would need to have both his picks win), whereas Myriam simply places a straight $2 place bet in the first race (she would only need to have the horse finish either first or second). Camden, on the other hand, places a $5 show bet on the horse Jacob bet on, because he isn't as reckless. Brittany, however, abstains from betting. Yet all bets go through Camden.
Once the family's wagers are made, they get seated, waiting for the signal from the steward for the first race to start:
"And they're off" the steward shouts in the PA system, while opening the starting gates.
Then the people in attendance start hollering in the direction of the horses as they race around the track. Camden then asks a question from both children:
"Do you have any idea of how much you stand to win? You probably know by now that, if you lose the bet, you lose the amount you wagered"
"No" Jacob answers his dad, shrugging.
"Yes. Ten dollars net" Myriam answers with more confidence than her younger brother.
The most exciting moment to the bettors in the family is happening down the homestretch. Jacob feels like he still has a chance to "stay alive", while Myriam crosses her fingers. Camden, on the other hand, is much more relaxed than his children. They are nervously watching the action unfold as the race comes to an end.
"Yay! I won!" an exuberant Jacob shouts at his parents.
"Actually, you only won one part of your bet, your wager requires both your selections to win" Camden scolds his son.
"I won my bet" Myriam points out to her dad, beaming with pride.
"Don't get cocky while you wager, and any net gain will be yours to keep for pocket change after the night at the races end" he attempts to motivate his children.
I'm $10 ahead now, but now that dad announced that any profit from tonight will be given to me, I must ensure I finish the night on a profit, Myriam muses, while pondering what to wager going into the next race.
"And if I lose money tonight?" Myriam asks his dad, believing the answer might change her entire betting strategy for the next 9 races.
"Losses will be taken against the following weeks' allowances" Camden warns his children, while he enters the family's bets.
Ultimately, Myriam chooses to go for a $2 show bet on the horse Jacob bet on the second part, while Camden makes a $5 place bet on a different horse.
"After this race ends, we will go eat, and please, no wagering during our meal" Brittany warns the rest of the family.
With the second race being underway, Camden keeps a running calculation in his mind of where the bettors stand. Assuming all bets are lost for the second race, Myriam is currently at $28, while Jacob is at $16, and Camden is at $55, considering he had a $50 betting budget for himself.
This can't be kept up forever, he shakes in anticipation of the horse the youngest son bet on coming down the homestretch in the lead. However, the horse he bet on comes in from behind. And, in doing so, threatens his own son's wager. Yet, as the wire draws near...
Both horses appear to be neck-and-neck. The whole family nervously watch this entire race come down to the wire. And to the photo-finish along with it. When the smoke of dirt clears...
"After review of the photo-finish, the winner is..." the steward (or referee) announces the name of the winning horse over the racetrack's PA system. Which isn't what Jacob has wagered on for the second part of the daily double.
"I... lost" Jacob then sighs, upon realizing he lost almost an entire week's allowance over this failed daily double.
"In gambling, as in life, you cannot always win. However, the decision to wager on future races is yours for today" Camden warns his son, before turning to his daughter. "Same goes for you: sometimes it's best to stop going after more money, because you will lose some eventually. You just can't tell either way. It was beginner's luck after all"
"Fine, I'll stop wagering on horse races for tonight" Myriam seems to be a little flustered that her dad is implying that her luck must run out at some point.
After the race ends, they don't hesitate to go eat at one of the racetrack's restaurants with a view on the racetrack itself. Before the waiter comes to hand out menus to them:
"Happy birthday, Myriam" Camden starts singing Happy Birthday even though her actual birthday was on April 30.
"Let me be clear, honey: you shouldn't take the kids to the racetrack again for a while" Brittany scolds her husband.
"I thought it was a good opportunity for them, they made the most out of it" Camden retorts, when the waiter approaches the family, menus in hand.
Hehe: Myriam is sitting at $35, and the horse I wagered $5 on won the race over the one Jacob bet on in the daily double, so I won another $20, for a total of $30 for the night. Enough to pay for the kids' meal, which I plan on having them share it. However, our meals aren't cheap, Camden keeps track of their wagering status, while placing their orders for dinner.
They end up missing out on betting on races 3 and 4, but the excitement of watching horses race is enough for Jacob to wager another $3 in hopes that he will earn back at least the sum lost in the daily double. And picks his wager accordingly. However, Myriam, feeling that her luck is about to run out, decides to stop wagering. And gets to keep $15 in her pocket.
By the end of the night, Camden ends up losing $15, while Jacob breaks even. How exciting it is to watch horse races live! And even wager on these! That's ok, losing was due to happen at some point, better luck next time. Can't take said $15 from Myriam though. After all, I realize that maybe kids their age would be better off watching horse races online than betting on these in person.