‘Sided with the Wolves’. For a moment the phrase hangs in silence. But then there is a swirl of voices, whispers, questions and shouts.

“Let’s vote and get it over with *yawn*”

“Did you think you could get away with it? We got you!”

“Could the game really be this easy?”

But in the end that brook-like voice breaks through.

[Lily]: I’m not a Wolf. I’m really not! The [Rat] has to be telling a lie.

[Rat]: No, it’s definitely a fact. [Horse], you’re good at math, right?

[Horse]: Hah… about that. I’m in ‘Geometry Honors’, but the course most students do in my year is AP, so I’m actually a little behin-

[Rat]: What are the odds that the Seer died the first night?

[Horse]: Oh! That kind of problem isn’t hard.

She pulls out a pair of reading glasses and flips through a notepad she slips from her knapsack. The paper's monogrammed A.H. - it must have come from her hotel suite. I’ve seen that same pad on my room’s nightstand.

[Horse]: Remembering the rules, someone gets the Seer role on the first midnight. This means that we know for sure that the [Goat] and the [Monkey] aren’t Seer. Though we saw the [Monkey]’s card so, um, we knew what his role was anyway.

[Horse]: But since there were ten of us last night, there’s a one-in-ten chance that the [Rooster] was Seer and died!

[Lily]: I think the chance the Seer’s dead might be a little bit higher. The Wolves wouldn’t kill another Wolf, right? So last night, if there were three Wolves and seven Town, the Wolves had a one-in-seven chance of killing that strong role.

[Horse]: I told you I wasn’t good at math! Then I got it wrong - the answer is actually then, um, about 15%.

[Rat]: In other words, there’s an 85% chance the Seer survived the first night.

[Ox]: Okay, we tossed around a lot of numbers. Say it in English, what’s the big idea?

[Rat]: [Dog], are you calling me a liar?

[Dog]: I’m not saying that you’re lying, but you’re definitely not telling the truth. You can’t be the real Seer if you think I’m Wolf.

[Rat]: But if I’m not the real Seer, there’s a high chance that the real one is alive with us right now. An 85% chance. So why isn’t that Seer speaking up?

This tale has been unlawfully obtained from Royal Road. If you discover it on Amazon, kindly report it.

[Rat]: They should be screaming about now. “He’s not the real Seer! I’m the real Seer, so the [Rat] must be Wolf!” But funnily enough, they’re silent.

[Lily]: Maybe the ‘real Seer’ doesn’t want the Wolves to kill them!

[Pig]: I-it’s very likely the Healer is alive… the Healer can watch over the Seer… then the Seer will never die.

[Pig]: S-so there’s no reason for the Seer to stay silent… did I say something wrong? Please don’t look at me like that!

[Rat]: So it looks like if no one else says that they’re Seer, today’s vote will be really simple.

[Rat]: All we have to do is vote for the [Dog]. Isn’t that right, [Snake]?

All the pieces fall suddenly into place. Ever since the end of our conversation last night, the [Rat] must have been planning this.

[Yuri]: You’re right. If that happens, there’s no reason not to vote for her.

I thought Werewolf was a game where the killers deceive the town. But in this complicated game even the Townspeople lie to one another.

Let’s say for a moment that the [Rat] is the Seer. Since no one disputes his claim, that part being true is incredibly likely.

But I also think that the [Rat] is lying about what he found out last night. Not because I believe Lily; whether she’s truly a Wolf or a Town, I don’t know. Either way it wouldn’t change my resolve to protect her.

The reason I think the [Rat] is lying about his report is simply because he told me he was Seer beforehand. If I were a Wolf, I would have killed him. I led the vote on the [Monkey] yesterday, who revealed he was town before dying. I’m the most suspicious person in the game and still the [Rat] entrusted me with his role.

He didn’t check Lily. He checked me for sure, and learned I was Town. Then why lie in his report?

It’s all to force me to do this…

[Yuri]: I’m the real Seer. You must be fake, you’re lying.

[Rat]: That’s what I expected. Sorry guys about what I just did. The real Seer is the [Snake].

A role swap. We’re doing a role swap, just like the [Rat] proposed last night. He noticed that I was protecting [Lily] and held her hostage to get me to do what he wanted. Bastard.

[Horse]: Huh? What just happened?

[Rat]: I was pretending to be Seer to get reactions from everyone and get some evidence. Again, my bad guys.

I bite back my humiliation; to be outmaneuvered like this in a ‘social deduction game’ by someone with no social skills whatsoever! When he’s away from her...

[Dragon]: Hold on. [Snake], are you saying that you’re the Seer? And [Rat], you’re not the Seer?

[Yuri]: Is. There. A problem?

[Dragon]: I just want to be clear. I was quiet this whole time because I found the conversation confusing.

You’ve found it confusing? I’ve found it absolutely confounding! My neck is on the line, though if they’re alive the Healer should at least always protect me. But guarding my life, and Lily’s life, is not the only problem I have.

Everyone is looking to me for leadership. And too late I realize that one of them, tall, dark-haired, and even-minded, is someone with whom I’m actually going to be at odds.

[Dragon]: I’m the real Seer. So [Snake], if you’re pretending to be one like the [Rat] was, please retract your claim.