1 Soul Bound
1.2 Taking Control
1.2.5 An Idiosyncratic Interlude
1.2.5.21 Alderney's answer
Heather: “The Great Filter. Cosic told me about the Great Lokum Negotiation. Let me use that as an analogy.”
Heather: “Supposing that, on a particular day, Vedad was your only customer. He has nobody to trade lokumlari with, so if he draws a White from the jar, everything is over. That corresponds to a technology that kills the sentient species.”
Nadine: “Like grey goo, that eats the planet.”
Heather: “Pink technologies harm our chances but don’t by themselves wipe us out. Maybe they make things more desperate, or make us less rational.”
Nadine: “Like certain addictive drugs? Or maybe oil-fueled cars?”
Heather: “Yellow technologies are neutral. They may help our standard of living, but they don’t alter the chances of our being wiped out.”
Nadine: “Stuffed toy animals. Matryoshka dolls.”
Heather: “Green technologies are beneficial. They help us make good decisions, become wiser.”
Nadine: “Gutenberg’s invention of movable type for the printing press.”
Heather: “Brown technologies are the holy grail. You only need to discover one brown technology, and it fixes everything, guarantees you’ll never die out to a white.”
Nadine: “Ah. We’ve not discovered one of them yet, have we?”
Heather: “Immortality. Certain sorts of time travel. But the most common one suggested is creating or contacting a super-intelligent being who is friendly to our species. Maybe an alien, maybe a self-improving expert system.”
Nadine: “So what mix of colours is in the jar?”
Heather: “That’s the problem. We don’t know. There might be loads of whites and no brown. There might be no whites and just some nasty pinks which we’ve already dealt with. We can’t even necessarily know what the colours are of all the ones we’ve already removed. For example, we still don’t know which colour atomic weapons are, not for certain.”
Nadine: “And that’s where the Great Filter comes in?”
Heather: “Yes. You mentioned Tomsk telling you about all the species extinction scenarios we’d already identified. What the Great Filter tells us is that the odds aren’t good. That either the ones we’re currently facing are even deadlier and more inescapable than we thought, or there are more and worse waiting for us the next time a corporate scientist shouts ‘Eureka!’ and gets a big bonus for it.”
Stolen novel; please report.
Nadine: “Ouch. So, basically, we’re doomed?”
Heather: “Not necessarily. Currently we have all our eggs in one basket. Most of us share a single biosphere, the planet Earth, and if that gets destroyed then Game Over, like trying to learn a new video game full of unexpected boss monsters, when you only get a single life.”
Nadine: “Our species is playing in hardcore mode. One slip and we’re toast.”
Heather: “And that needs to change. We desperately need to set up some independent colonies, self-sufficient with their own biospheres, that don’t slavishly copy every new technology that the people on Earth discover.”
Nadine: “So if one biosphere gets wiped out by a new technology, the others can learn from that mistake?”
Heather: “Yep. As long as they’re outside the splash range of the damage the dying convulsions of an imploding society might cause. Hiding in the asteroid belt might work, as long as the white technology isn’t a superintelligent self-improving expert system who decides to go the Berserker route, or to turn the entire solar system into a Dyson Bubble holding computers to run on. But ideally, we want independent biospheres situated around other stars, because if they turn off the receiving maser that would act as a brake for travellers, it is really really hard to invade them against their will.”
Nadine: “I think I grasp, now, why our species needs to do this, and do it soon. But aren’t people already trying to do that as fast as possible? What role would the Wombles play in this?”
Heather: “Communication. We, as a species, are tackling this problem stupidly. Or just ignoring it. We’re grabbing lokumlari from the jar with both hands and swallowing them unexamined, when we ought to be picking them out one at a time, and scrutinising each one carefully with small scale tests before deciding whether to adopt them. We’re not modelling their impact in advance, we’re not making collaborative decisions. On the contrary, the power blocs and big corporations are in a death race to see who can gain an advantage over the others, any way they can. No fear, no foresight, just dive right in and grab grab grab.”
Nadine had never heard Heather sound so heated before. Enthusiastic, annoyed, frustrated, tired, worried, yes; but this was anger, anger born of helplessness. Heather was never helpless. She always had an idea of something to do, or shrugged and moved onto something she could do something about.
Nadine: “It sounds like dealing with that is going to take more than just communicating the problem clearly.”
Heather: “Yes. It’s going to take giving people the tools to collaborate and think better, it’s going to take altering the balance of power, reducing polarisation, spreading hope and reducing desperation. It’s why I’m back on Earth and why I’m with the Wombles. I’d talk, but nobody who’d listen would take action. I was losing hope, and I hate that. I keep making stupid cat jokes, but sometimes I really do wish I were a cat. It would be easier. They don’t have to worry about the rest of their species being selfish idiots. They’re free to live in the now and do what they want, like hunting for lunch or playing in the sun.”
Nadine: “Does this tie in with what you were doing at the seasteading?”
Heather: “It does. But that’s a big topic, and I’ve still got work to do tonight. Talk more tomorrow?”
Nadine got out of the chair to stretch and have a final look around.
Nadine: “You know it. And Heather? Thank you for being here for me, for sharing with me your amazing thoughts and creations. Thank you for being my friend. I don’t say that enough. Thank you.”
Heather said: “Awww”, and glomphed her inside an enormous hug.
They stood there awhile, on the peak of the mountain, under a spinning sky.
That night, back in her own bed, Nadine dreamed. She dreamed of stars.