Stephany fiddled with the latch on her portfolio, the magnetic clasp making small clicks as she latched and unlatched it. A postdoc glances over at her before rolling his eyes, and she is sure he would reprimand her for being annoying if he wasn't getting off the elevator on the next floor. He exits and she sighs, heart pounding in her chest. Two more floors… one… ding!
She exits the elevator and strides with purpose towards the lab meeting that she rearranged flights to be able to make today instead of next week. Her research has taken a turn, one she doesn't think can wait another week. She sits in the back at her school computer and lets the other graduate students present first. In the three months that she was on site in Siberia, her peer's projects have really evolved. When you are deep in the research yourself it feels like you are standing still and making no progress, but step back a little and you can see how everyone has grown.
She wishes her results were as promising as her lab mates.
"Stephany! You are back early. What've you got for us today?" Her professor smiles. He is always in such a good mood. She couldn't have asked for a better advisor, and now she was going to ruin his day, and it was only 9 in the morning.
"Uh, well…" she opens her portfolio and passes around her data. "I've been collecting samples of the permafrost around the Arctic Circle. I started in Canada, went through the North Pole, and ended in Siberia. I've been running the samples as I went, and… it isn't good."
"In what way?"
She walks to the projector with the USB drive she kept in her pocket. "The ice is melting much faster than we thought, so our climate models are all wrong," a new updated climate model is projected on the board in front of the room, "As you can see here, by increasing the rate of ice melt to what we are seeing, we could have catastrophic weather shifts making these bands of the world uninhabitable in the next three years instead of by the end of the century. If nothing changes," she clicks to another model, "only 25% of the earth will be able to support human life by the end of the century."
Her advisor and lab mates sit there processing the information. Minutes pass as they flip through the data and look at the updated models, until finally one of her lab mates asks "Are you sure? Did you take the measurements and process them correctly?"
"I am pretty sure I did, they are in the lab and I was going to run all the numbers again to make sure, but the climate damage isn't the worst part."
"'The earth is about to be uninhabitable' isn't the worst part?" Another lab mate asks.
"Unfortunately not. You know my dissertation isn't about climate change, it is about the evolution of disease."
"Oh no."
"Yeah, in each sample there were viruses and strain-resistant bacteria we have no immunity to and no drugs to counter. Every village was sick with new pathogens that each have the potential to become a pandemic. I've run the numbers and within the next five years, it is highly probable we will have up to four simultaneous pandemics that could eliminate between 30 to 60 percent of the human population if we can't refreeze the tundra."
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"Impossible. That is just… not… possible," her professor mumbles while flipping through the data in front of him and glancing at the new climate model. "You've factored the accelerating melt rate into your model."
Stephany walks back to her desk, and hands the notebook with her calculations in it to her professor. The room is silent as he checks her math while mumbling to himself and ultimately pulling a pen out of his pocket so he can work the numbers as well.
"Alright, new plan," the professor declares, snapping the portfolio closed. "Each one of you will rerun Stephany's samples and verify her data and math. On Friday I want all of your conclusions. I know that is in three days, I'll have your other professors excuse this week's homework. Charlie?"
"Sir?"
"You are friends with the graduate students in Dr. Bolton's climate lab, right?"
"Yes sir, my girlfriend is in that lab. We tend to alternate where we study."
"Good. I'm bringing them in to verify the data as well. You will liaise." He turns back to Stephany, "Do we have enough samples for that?"
"We have enough samples to run the test 16 times, 20 if we are very careful."
He looks at the group, "Let's aim for 20 then." He stands, still holding her portfolio with the data in it. "I'm going to start reworking these numbers. The rest of you, get started."
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The students worked day and night. It took two days for everyone to run the samples, and then another twenty-four to derive and run the same equations Stephany did. By Friday, the two labs of students averaging 5 hours of sleep over three days were ready with their data sets.
The results were worse than Stephany had originally calculated. Apparently, the accelerating climate change calculations she made forgot to account for the ice melt not being linear. In the end, the labs concluded that multiple pandemics in the next five years was a near certainty and that the world would be 75% uninhabitable in the next 20-30 years.
After coming to this consensus, the students were sent home to rest and then finished writing up all the data and reports the next morning. By Monday, the two professors, armed with data and an aggressive plan to fix it, brought the terrible discovery to Congress, where they were laughed out of the house—not one member of Congress willing to risk reelection for "science."
Undeterred, the professors sent slide decks and reports to every government in the world and presented at every conference they could.
No one was willing to believe we were so close to disaster.
Weeks turned into months. Stormes and heat waves got worse, every one exactly in line with the lab's updated climate model, while every other climate model struggled to keep up.
Then the first pandemic came.
Everyone expected it to start in Siberia because the Russian government was likely to cover up any new illnesses until it breached their borders, but it came from Canada instead. The virus was airborne, and it killed about 30% of those who contracted it. Violent wildfires accelerated the virus's spread as asymptomatic carriers were unknowingly evacuated with the uninfected.
In under a month, the virus had penetrated every corner of the globe. A week after that, the second pandemic hit. This time from Greenland.
The second pandemic's arrival jogged the memory of an intern in the white house. They found the report, read it, and then ran with it to their boss. Suddenly, people were worried about the climate and willing to listen to the science. But it was too late to make significant changes to reverse the damage.
A year later, the third pandemic hit the fourth following soon behind.
People got used to wearing protective gear out. Students learned at home and green technology advanced at a rapid pace.
As 40% of the human population passed from the onslaught of pandemics, the rest found ways to exist with less, and the climate began to heal.